Canada has considered what it would do if the United States ever took military action against it, Prime Minister Mark Carney has revealed. That doesn’t mean Ottawa thinks American troops are about to cross the border.
Carney described such a scenario as an “extreme tail risk,” something considered highly unlikely but serious enough that a government still has to think about it.
“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Carney told the New York Times, adding, “That’s just risk management.”
Canada and the US have spent decades as close allies, sharing intelligence, trade and even responsibility for defending North American airspace through NORAD.
But Donald Trump’s return to the White House has badly shaken that relationship.
The 47th POTUS has repeatedly talked about Canada becoming America’s 51st state and referred to its former prime minister as a “governor.” He has previously ruled out using military force to take Canada, saying he would instead use “economic force.”
Carney isn’t treating that as a reason to ignore every other possibility.
Canada’s Defence Minister David McGuinty said militaries routinely prepare for scenarios that may never happen and urged Canadians to view the planning in that context.
Canada drew up Defence Scheme No. 1 in the 1920s for a hypothetical war with the United States. America later developed its own War Plan Red, which included plans for an invasion of Canada.
Those plans belonged to a very different world and were abandoned generations ago.
But almost a century later, the possibility of military conflict between the neighbours is being discussed by a Canadian prime minister again.
2026-09-25 21:58:00
