First monsoon spell likely to hit parts of Pakistan from July 1: PMD

• Rain likely in Punjab, northern areas from July 1: PMD.
• No rainfall expected in Sindh before July 5: PMD.
• Sindh likely to receive below-normal rainfall: PMD.
  

KARACHI: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast the arrival of the monsoon season in Pakistan from July 1, though Sindh is unlikely to receive monsoon rains before July 5.

PMD spokesperson Anjum Nazir said the monsoon system is expected to first affect the northeastern parts of the country, including Punjab and Kashmir, while rainfall is also expected in northern areas and northeastern Punjab from July 1.

According to Nazir, there is no likelihood of a monsoon system reaching Sindh in the coming days, with no rainfall expected in the province before July 5.

The PMD spokesperson said that a low-pressure system developing over the Bay of Bengal may influence weather conditions in Sindh, including Karachi, raising the chances of rain.

He, however, said that several parts of Sindh, including Karachi, are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during the upcoming monsoon season.

The forecast came during a month in which the PMD expects above-normal mean temperatures nationwide.

The Met Office has said the likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions was particularly high over southern regions, stretching from eastern Balochistan and western Sindh to central Punjab.

The PMD data for May showed Sindh received 0.3 millimetres of rainfall, 91.3% below its 1991–2020 normal of 3.1 millimetres. The province’s mean temperature was 35.2°C, or 1.0°C above normal.

For June, the department expects near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall across the country. Its probabilistic outlook said near-normal rainfall probabilities dominate across southern regions, including much of Sindh, although rainfall could vary considerably from place to place.

In its monthly outlook, the PMD said above-normal temperatures could increase the potential for heat spikes and prolonged heatwave conditions, especially across the plain areas of Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan.

Below-normal rainfall could make extended heat-like conditions more likely in these regions.

The department also said isolated heavy downpours could still trigger localised urban flooding in major cities, particularly in poorly drained and low-lying areas, despite below-normal rainfall.