California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico and southern and eastern Colorado are favoured for above-average snowfall this winter, while Southern California, the Southwest, the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, and Florida could see more rain than usual, as suggested by NOAA and OpenSnow forecasts.
The Central Sierra has the most evident signal for a snowier-than-normal season. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and areas near the Great Lakes may be drier than normal.
According to NOAA, there is a 75 per cent chance of a record-setting El Niño event occurring from October to December, while the likelihood of a very strong event is above 90 per cent throughout fall and winter. Should this occur, this will be the strongest El Niño on record since 1950.
Weather Company’s winter outlook names the Southern Rockies and Sierra as “the jackpot of this winter,” predicting an active jet stream track which is expected to produce frequent and consistent snow from Lake Tahoe to Wasatch and Colorado Rockies. Heaviest above-normal snow is expected to fall from January through March, while December is supposed to see reduced activity.
In turn, a strong El Niño has forced the jet stream to shift northward, bringing a warmer and drier winter from the Midwest through the Northern Rockies and Cascades. Washington is expected to receive close to normal precipitation but warm, thus producing less snow in the Cascades. For the Northeast, a rain/snow battle is in store, with a stormy pattern and lack of cold air early in the season.
December is predicted to start off warm, with above-normal temperatures stretching from the Central Appalachians into New England. January sees milder-than-normal weather across the northern United States, but perhaps some cooler conditions in the Deep South, increasing chances for snow or ice in the south. February looks to have cooler weather over the Northeast, leading to a cold end.
2026-09-16 00:15:00
