- Crude exports exceed pre-war levels in last week of September.
- Kuwaiti VLCC attacked on October 1, says report by Marisks.
- Iranian forces may be targeting “kill box” area, says firm.
Crude oil exports from the Middle East rose above pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September despite attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, shipping data showed on Monday.
Crude exports from the region exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and from September 27 to 29, reaching between 19.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and 22.5 million bpd, according to provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler.
Exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February this year, before the US-Israeli war with Iran began.
The seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd on October 1, the data showed. The figure includes shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, exports from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
The overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days to September 30, Kpler data showed.
The number of liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz also rose in September to its highest monthly level since February.
The figures exclude vessels that may have crossed the strait with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off to avoid detection.
Before the war began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels a day, including tankers, gas carriers, bulk carriers and container vessels. It accounted for about 20% of the world’s daily crude oil and LNG supply.
Ship attacks
Despite the recovery in oil flows, attacks on tankers have continued in and around the Strait of Hormuz, with at least seven incidents reported, shipping intelligence firm Marisks said in a report on Saturday.
The very large crude carrier Kazimah III was reportedly struck by an unknown projectile on October 1 while operating in the strait, causing a fire onboard the tanker, Marisks said.
“All crew members were reported safe and were subsequently evacuated from the vessel,” it said.
Kazimah III was last seen discharging 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at the Ras Markaz port on the coast of Oman on September 17, according to Kpler data.
Its owner, Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside office hours.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.
Marisks said merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz face a “heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat” following the recent sharp increase in traffic.
“Current intelligence suggests that the recent pattern of incidents may not necessarily represent deliberate targeting of individually selected merchant vessels,” Marisks said.
“Instead, available information indicates the possibility that Iranian forces are launching missiles into a predetermined engagement area or ‘kill box’, with weapons potentially acquiring and locking onto available radar signatures within that area.”
Physical presence within the engagement zone at the relevant time could itself represent the primary exposure, Marisks added.
2026-10-05 05:09:00
